Biodegradable-Lamp
0xb2eb14d237e6a684c91183a28192128c5a935751
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
4
Open notional
$380.60
Total PnL
$39.90
Realised
$-66.73
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
362 shares @ 58.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$294.99
$85.03
- NO
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
85 shares @ 75.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$85.00
$21.25
- YES
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
1 shares @ 24.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.61
$0.37
- YES
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
2 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.02
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Think about" during meeting with Netanyahu?$0.27Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iraq by February 28?$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Real Madrid advance to the round of 16?$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMNamed storm forms before hurricane season?$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump say "Epstein" on Truth Social this week?$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMSt. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins$20.50Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - February 16, 8PM ET$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - February 9, 10PM ET$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMLevante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for February 5 be greater than 2,300,000?$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMOlympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "NATO" during Board of Peace events on February 19?$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 13?$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Charlton Athletic FC (-1.5)$0.00Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMLevante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5$0.00Jun 17, 20:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $200.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 13, 04:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 20:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.