Harmless-Runaway
0xb2ebfc71e5912605f40092de156f315ece6b1b86
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
36
Open notional
$182.79
Total PnL
$-7.3K
Realised
$-1.5K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
13210 shares @ 32.2¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$112.28
$-4.1K
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
1343 shares @ 19.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$70.50
$-184.49
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
57734 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.3K
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
944 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-35.89
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?
627 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
333 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?
204 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?
191 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?
180 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?
168 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.51
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$35.89Apr 28, 14:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?$19.35Apr 25, 00:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$16.54Apr 21, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?$9.99Apr 1, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?$10.00Apr 1, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?$10.00Apr 1, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?$5.00Mar 31, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?$14.00Mar 31, 13:51 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$0.00Mar 30, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$10.00Mar 30, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$10.00Mar 30, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$1.00Mar 30, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?$30.00Mar 30, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?$10.47Mar 29, 20:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$50.47Mar 29, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?$15.00Mar 29, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?$15.01Mar 29, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?$13.00Mar 29, 01:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$103.00Mar 29, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?$99.99Mar 28, 17:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $53.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 16, 05:21 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 28, 14:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.