Candid-Affidavit
0xb39dcf792fa8a6ab5331cde9e86b8506db1d7a6d
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
2
Open notional
$221.08
Total PnL
$-51.06
Realised
$-0.45
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
158 shares @ 82.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$124.16
$-5.54
- YES
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
225 shares @ 63.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$96.92
$-45.08
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?$95.67Jul 30, 22:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?$32.15Jul 30, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?$32.80Jul 30, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?$65.60Jul 30, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?$32.80Jul 30, 22:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 31?$2.87Jul 30, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 31?$2.96Jul 30, 22:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?$128.26Jul 30, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?$142.00Jul 30, 20:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$120.11Jul 30, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$122.84Jul 30, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?$4.48Jul 30, 19:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?$7.95Jul 30, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?$4.61Jul 30, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?$8.18Jul 30, 19:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" during cabinet meeting?$67.68Jul 30, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" during cabinet meeting?$69.40Jul 30, 19:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 31?$14.31Jul 30, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 31?$14.75Jul 30, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?$142.00Jul 30, 18:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $42.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 22:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 22:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.