Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?
Probability
43¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$1.43
Liquidity
$13.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 43¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2408h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $13.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2407.9h
- 16:04SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2408h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:03PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 39¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 43¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 43¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 44¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 45¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 45¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 50¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 45¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 47¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 47¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 45¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Kansas Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Kansas Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).