Aromatic-Underestimate
0xb3f901cd6eb8d9c551929393db65f42ab7ff781b
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
60
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-520.80
Realised
$-21.29
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- YES
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
OpenGradient FDV above $1B one day after launch?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
500 shares @ 88.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-440.00
- YES
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.57Jul 15, 15:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by 5–10%?$0.08Jul 15, 11:16 UTC
- REWARD$1.61Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$288.00Jul 2, 16:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$38.20Jul 2, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$44.00Jul 2, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$259.38Jul 2, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$20.61Jul 2, 14:27 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$68.00Jun 30, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$70.00Jun 30, 14:11 UTC
- REWARD$0.12Jun 25, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$8.70Jun 23, 22:24 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$184.00Jun 23, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$184.00Jun 23, 14:55 UTC
- REWARD$0.43Jun 23, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$192.00Jun 22, 16:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$64.87Jun 22, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$63.20Jun 22, 14:37 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$29.93Jun 22, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$158.00Jun 22, 14:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $51.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 09:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 15:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.