Lonely-Gastronomy
0xb40d627aad9d03eb1a0b5cdcbd11cdcfd6a3e3ac
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
57
Open notional
$3.53
Total PnL
$-491.80
Realised
$1.20
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 57- YES
Will the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) win the most seats in the 2026 Puducherry Legislative Assembly election?
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$1.43
$0.43
- YES
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$1.43
$0.43
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 19.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.57
$-0.43
- YES
Will the Waddani Party (Somaliland National Party) win the most seats in the next Somaliland parliamentary election?
2 shares @ 61.0¢·now 6.3¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.10
$-0.90
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on December 12?
2778 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-150.00
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on December 11?
1250 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on December 11?
990 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
750 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on December 11?
627 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
326 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?$1.07Mar 4, 06:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?$1.08Mar 4, 06:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?$1.24Mar 4, 06:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?$1.80Mar 4, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$5.00Feb 23, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$5.00Feb 23, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$5.00Feb 23, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$0.00Feb 23, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$0.98Feb 23, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$1.47Feb 23, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$2.35Feb 23, 05:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$9.92Feb 23, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$0.79Feb 23, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$1.71Feb 23, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$2.50Feb 23, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$2.50Feb 23, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$2.50Feb 23, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET$1.50Feb 23, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET$1.00Feb 23, 05:30 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$0.07Feb 16, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $2.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 14, 14:38 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 4, 06:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.