Bouncy-Saving
0xb41ead279375742d6c2a1a2239bdce56376411fd
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$410.01
Total PnL
$-651.37
Realised
$248.87
Win rate
99%
106 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.8m & 5m square kilometers?
319 shares @ 2.5¢·now 5.3¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$16.93
$8.80
- YES
Will Astralis Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?
333 shares @ 1.5¢·now 3.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$12.65
$7.72
- YES
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
325 shares @ 2.7¢·now 3.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.03
$3.23
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?
336 shares @ 1.5¢·now 3.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.41
$6.52
- YES
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season?
360 shares @ 2.5¢·now 3.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.34
$2.34
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?
403 shares @ 2.0¢·now 2.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.68
$1.47
- YES
Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
290 shares @ 3.1¢·now 3.3¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$9.43
$0.48
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?
369 shares @ 2.3¢·now 2.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.86
$0.30
- YES
Will Josh Elliott win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?
284 shares @ 2.7¢·now 3.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$8.80
$1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?
315 shares @ 2.8¢·now 2.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.19
$-0.73
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Como win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?$0.14Jul 25, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reliance Industries Ltd be the largest Indian company?$1.08Jul 25, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mastercard (MA) beat quarterly earnings?$0.05Jul 25, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yan Diomande join Paris Saint-Germain?$0.66Jul 25, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$0.18Jul 25, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?$0.13Jul 25, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?$0.48Jul 25, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$0.01Jul 25, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$0.40Jul 25, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jasper Philipsen be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$0.88Jul 25, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?$0.80Jul 25, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?$1.04Jul 25, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?$1.00Jul 25, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?$1.04Jul 25, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig?$0.42Jul 25, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have between 525-550mm of precipitation in July?$1.00Jul 25, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have between 525-550mm of precipitation in July?$0.50Jul 25, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have between 525-550mm of precipitation in July?$0.49Jul 25, 09:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 3.2% in July?$7.02Jul 25, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have between 525-550mm of precipitation in July?$1.25Jul 25, 09:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
99% win rate over 106 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
106 closed markets, 99% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 09:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 10:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 106 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.