Flamboyant-Merit
0xb4312ab2ec8f25bc6686e726022c083f08a582ec
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$678.04
Total PnL
$-108.25
Realised
$-2.48
Win rate
53%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24?
64 shares @ 50.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$59.42
$27.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24?
59 shares @ 50.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$56.81
$27.53
- NO
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%?
50 shares @ 50.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$48.42
$23.42
- YES
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?
50 shares @ 50.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$46.25
$21.25
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
56 shares @ 50.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$41.00
$13.11
- NO
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 24?
50 shares @ 50.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$38.50
$13.50
- NO
Relay FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?
40 shares @ 50.0¢·now 93.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$37.48
$17.48
- YES
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the South Africa vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match?
40 shares @ 50.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$27.40
$7.40
- NO
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?
28 shares @ 50.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.50
$11.71
- NO
Tori FDV above $1B one day after launch?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$18.80
$8.80
Recent activity
- SPLITWill the announcers say "Neymar" 5+ times during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA World Cup Match?$20.00Jun 24, 08:52 UTC
- MERGEWill the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA World Cup Match?$20.00Jun 24, 08:52 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24?$50.00Jun 24, 08:51 UTC
- SPLITS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 24?$50.00Jun 24, 08:51 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 24?$50.00Jun 24, 08:51 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 24?$50.00Jun 24, 08:51 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 24?$50.00Jun 24, 08:44 UTC
- SPLITWill Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?$50.00Jun 24, 08:36 UTC
- SPLITSaturn FDV above $700M one day after launch$20.00Jun 24, 08:35 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24?$50.00Jun 24, 08:35 UTC
- SPLITWill the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match?$20.00Jun 24, 08:35 UTC
- MERGEWill the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31?$20.00Jun 24, 08:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24?$15.84Jun 24, 08:24 UTC
- SPLITRelay FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?$20.00Jun 24, 08:24 UTC
- TRADESELLRelay FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?$0.38Jun 24, 08:24 UTC
- MERGEWill the announcers say "Assist" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA World Cup Match?$20.00Jun 24, 08:20 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24?$50.00Jun 24, 08:19 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 24?$50.00Jun 24, 08:19 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24?$50.00Jun 24, 08:18 UTC
- SPLITWill the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Switzerland vs Canada FIFA World Cup Match?$20.00Jun 24, 08:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
6 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 6
- Avg trade size
- $11.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 07:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 08:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.