Flamboyant-Merit
0xb4312ab2ec8f25bc6686e726022c083f08a582ec
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
33
Open notional
$219.46
Total PnL
$-49.57
Realised
$-2.38
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- YES
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?
64 shares @ 32.7¢·now 30.0¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$19.30
$-1.77
- NO
Will Albert Aníbal Arenas Yabar win the next Cusco mayoral elections?
31 shares @ 61.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$19.21
$0.00
- YES
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?
40 shares @ 52.5¢·now 47.0¢·exp Aug 28, 2026$18.80
$-2.20
- YES
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by June 30, 2027?
30 shares @ 58.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$17.70
$0.30
- NO
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026?
36 shares @ 53.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$16.03
$-3.06
- YES
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?
84 shares @ 21.9¢·now 18.2¢·exp Jan 20, 2027$15.23
$-3.10
- YES
Will Leonard Krog win the 2026 Nanaimo mayoral election?
19 shares @ 70.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Oct 17, 2026$14.11
$0.67
- YES
Will Junior Caminero hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
19 shares @ 80.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$14.05
$-1.24
- NO
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?
20 shares @ 87.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$12.10
$-5.30
- NO
Will Shaun Deeb win the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year?
20 shares @ 64.0¢·now 55.3¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$11.06
$-1.74
Recent activity
- REWARD$16.58Aug 19, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?$17.65Aug 18, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Albert Aníbal Arenas Yabar win the next Cusco mayoral elections?$19.21Aug 18, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?$17.40Aug 18, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?$19.10Aug 18, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026?$19.10Aug 18, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by June 30, 2027?$17.40Aug 18, 16:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$15.00Aug 18, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?$18.33Aug 18, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$16.93Aug 18, 14:53 UTC
- REDEEMIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$5.00Aug 18, 01:51 UTC
- REWARD$17.31Aug 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?$7.68Aug 17, 23:17 UTC
- MERGEWill a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?$20.00Aug 17, 21:26 UTC
- MERGEWill a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?$20.00Aug 17, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?$17.63Aug 17, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?$18.48Aug 17, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?$15.80Aug 17, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?$2.52Aug 17, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?$3.74Aug 17, 20:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $8.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 23:06 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.