Sleepy-Heron
0xb497d98f746d47b945345242b5d525e94f65fa28
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
27
Open notional
$62.55
Total PnL
$-430.45
Realised
$-0.06
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
317 shares @ 12.6¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.26
$-6.74
- YES
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
116 shares @ 30.4¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.99
$-9.13
- YES
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
25 shares @ 20.0¢·now 13.2¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.30
$-1.70
- NO
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?
791 shares @ 20.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-160.00
- YES
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?
287 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
192 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
189 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- OVER
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 2.5
109 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-9.82
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$36.50Jul 20, 01:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Switzerland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$29.85Jul 12, 05:54 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $48.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 22:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.