Defiant-Senator
0xb49e9cbb8c32e7d7689369454790a5314ee5d77e
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
77
Open notional
$86.14
Total PnL
$-393.52
Realised
$-7.52
Win rate
0%
69 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 77- YES
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?
23 shares @ 79.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$19.25
$1.25
- YES
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?
22 shares @ 45.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$13.56
$3.56
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
37 shares @ 27.3¢·now 32.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$11.89
$1.89
- YES
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-08-20?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$10.10
$0.10
- YES
Will Santos FC win on 2026-08-23?
19 shares @ 51.8¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$9.93
$-0.07
- YES
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-08-23?
17 shares @ 60.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$9.83
$-0.17
- YES
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-08-19?
18 shares @ 56.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$9.55
$-0.45
- YES
CD Universidad Católica vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Draw at halftime?
4 shares @ 48.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$2.02
$0.02
- YES
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-08-05?
29 shares @ 37.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
28 shares @ 35.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-08-20?$10.25Aug 17, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SE Palmeiras win on 2026-08-19?$10.22Aug 17, 23:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Santos FC win on 2026-08-23?$10.24Aug 17, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SE Palmeiras win on 2026-08-23?$10.20Aug 17, 23:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill CR Flamengo win on 2026-08-16?$19.61Aug 17, 02:16 UTC
- REDEEMCR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC: Draw at halftime?$11.36Aug 17, 00:28 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims)$9.80Aug 16, 02:48 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 330: Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore (Middleweight, Early Prelims)$9.80Aug 15, 23:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYCR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC: Draw at halftime?$5.14Aug 15, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CR Flamengo win on 2026-08-16?$10.24Aug 15, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill São Paulo FC win on 2026-08-15?$5.11Aug 15, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 330: Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore (Middleweight, Early Prelims)$5.12Aug 15, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims)$5.12Aug 15, 23:06 UTC
- REDEEMCA Rosario Central vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: Draw at halftime?$19.61Aug 14, 05:07 UTC
- REDEEMCruzeiro EC vs. CR Flamengo: Draw at halftime?$20.83Aug 13, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$10.29Aug 12, 12:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYCD Universidad Católica vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Draw at halftime?$2.05Aug 12, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYMirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: Draw at halftime?$2.05Aug 12, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYSE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: SE Palmeiras O/U 1.5$5.10Aug 12, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYCA Rosario Central vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: Draw at halftime?$10.24Aug 12, 12:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
64/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 69 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
69 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $6.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 2, 23:35 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 23:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 69 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.