Neighboring-Boxer
0xb508d3889e358bf3bc8f420df5f00fdf3fcb2e07
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
110
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-306.22
Realised
$11.51
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 110- YES
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
7700 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-23.10
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-6.00
- NO
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
1170 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.01
- NO
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
1150 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 1?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 1?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
600 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-14.45
- YES
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 16 be between 90 and 95?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 16 be between 85 and 90?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 16 be between 80 and 85?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWorld Championships: Switzerland vs. Latvia$0.42May 16, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWorld Championships: Switzerland vs. Latvia$0.73May 16, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWorld Championships: Switzerland vs. Latvia$0.49May 16, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWorld Championships: Switzerland vs. Latvia$0.22May 16, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWorld Championships: Switzerland vs. Latvia$0.79May 16, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 80,600 on May 11, 8AM ET?$0.11May 11, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 80,200 on May 11, 8AM ET?$0.02May 11, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 80,200 on May 11, 8AM ET?$0.13May 11, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 80,200 on May 11, 8AM ET?$1.42May 11, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?$0.89May 10, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?$0.13May 10, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 15?$10.78May 10, 18:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 17 be between 90 and 95?$0.29May 6, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$0.01May 3, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$0.34May 3, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$0.05May 3, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$0.10May 3, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$0.91May 3, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$0.30May 3, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$1.20May 3, 13:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 2, 22:04 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 18:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.