Jolly-Lover
0xb6d0987e157432836f3eec0b12ab98fdd8caf9a2
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-26.06
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on April 8?
205 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
110 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.11
- YES
Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?
20 shares @ 35.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-7.03
- YES
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?
20 shares @ 15.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-3.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C or below on April 6?
20 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on April 11?
10 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 11?
10 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 11?
10 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 11?
10 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 11?
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.10
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$9.80Jun 4, 05:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$29.43Jun 4, 05:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?$30.00May 25, 05:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $100 in April?$29.87May 1, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$8.30Apr 29, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?$3.55Apr 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?$3.71Apr 29, 08:01 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$30.00Apr 29, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?$9.00Apr 23, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $100 in April?$28.20Apr 23, 06:31 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?$29.97Apr 23, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?$15.00Apr 23, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?$21.30Apr 21, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?$5.40Apr 21, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on April 21?$6.10Apr 21, 06:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$27.60Apr 17, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?$3.12Apr 17, 08:48 UTC
- TRADESELLUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?$24.90Apr 17, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?$25.20Apr 17, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$28.08Apr 17, 08:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $8.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 5, 18:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 4, 05:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.