Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

1. 1

   Up 1pp over 24h

   Now 37¢; -3.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Divergence signal firing

   Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -3.5pp vs. 24h +1.0pp.

3. 3

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 872h with open resolution ambiguity.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.