Muddy-Special
0xb6fa96b11083a48ef5762014053902d9f2ba53cb
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$790.12
Total PnL
$-20.91
Realised
$-12.53
Win rate
9%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- ARTHUR FILS
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils
318 shares @ 43.2¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$138.44
$1.05
- TAKUYA KUMASAKA
Astana: Takuya Kumasaka vs Colin Sinclair
127 shares @ 61.5¢·now 70.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$89.81
$11.47
- UGO BLANCHET
Brownsburg: Ugo Blanchet vs Rei Sakamoto
118 shares @ 50.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$69.74
$10.64
- UNDER
NEC vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 2.5
121 shares @ 48.3¢·now 47.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$57.33
$-1.00
- NO
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
59 shares @ 50.7¢·now 90.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$53.64
$23.65
- REI SAKAMOTO
Brownsburg: Ugo Blanchet vs Rei Sakamoto
118 shares @ 50.0¢·now 41.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$48.46
$-10.64
- FK KAUNO ŽALGIRIS
Spread: GNK Dinamo Zagreb (-1.5)
67 shares @ 55.5¢·now 55.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$37.10
$0.00
- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
41 shares @ 50.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$35.61
$15.25
- COLIN SINCLAIR
Astana: Takuya Kumasaka vs Colin Sinclair
76 shares @ 50.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$22.34
$-15.53
- NEW YORK YANKEES
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
37 shares @ 47.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Sep 5, 2026$17.16
$-0.18
Recent activity
- TRADESELLAstana: Takuya Kumasaka vs Colin Sinclair$58.78Aug 11, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYFK Bodø/Glimt vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: Both Teams to Score$2.82Aug 11, 08:25 UTC
- TRADESELLAstana: Fajing Sun vs Zangar Nurlanuly$11.03Aug 11, 08:23 UTC
- MERGEAstana: Takuya Kumasaka vs Colin Sinclair$14.62Aug 11, 08:23 UTC
- TRADESELLITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert$5.44Aug 11, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert$5.66Aug 11, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYAstana: Fajing Sun vs Zangar Nurlanuly$10.24Aug 11, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)$2.14Aug 11, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sabah FK win on 2026-08-11?$2.79Aug 11, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester United win on 2026-08-12?$3.67Aug 11, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-08-11?$4.45Aug 11, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBoston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees$4.68Aug 11, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYAstana: Takuya Kumasaka vs Colin Sinclair$24.15Aug 11, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: GNK Dinamo Zagreb (-1.5)$10.01Aug 11, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYNEC vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 2.5$15.62Aug 11, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYNational Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils$31.78Aug 11, 08:14 UTC
- SPLITAstana: Takuya Kumasaka vs Colin Sinclair$21.33Aug 11, 08:14 UTC
- SPLITBrownsburg: Ugo Blanchet vs Rei Sakamoto$30.30Aug 11, 08:14 UTC
- TRADESELLAstana: Amir Omarkhanov vs Beibit Zhukayev$42.56Aug 11, 08:14 UTC
- MERGEAstana: Amir Omarkhanov vs Beibit Zhukayev$97.27Aug 11, 08:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
9% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $14.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 07:39 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 08:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.