SportsExpires Aug 17, 2026
Creator

Astana: Amir Omarkhanov vs Beibit Zhukayev

Probability

21¢

1h

+4.5pp

24h

-28.0pp

24h Vol

$125.3K

Liquidity

$192.7K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Divergence / timeline check

82% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Paper governor not run here

This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

  • Divergence / timeline checkclear

    82% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Paper governor not run heresource

    This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
56
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$15k
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$193k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1microstructure_quality_kernellearning_report_metricspaper_governor_policy+2
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Aug 17, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official ATP Tour data
Link
atptour.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
8¢
Aug 8, 2026, 17:00 UTCAug 11, 2026, 08:07 UTC
updated 08:09:54 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-08-11T08-09Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 28pp over 24h

    Now 21¢; +4.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Divergence observation firing

    Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +4.5pp vs. 24h -28.0pp.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 26¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the 1h vs 24h trend on the chart above — divergence resolves either by 1h reverting to the 24h direction or by the 24h trend flipping.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Official ATP Tour data

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Astana: Amir Omarkhanov vs Beibit Zhukayev State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Astana: Amir Omarkhanov vs Beibit Zhukayev State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Aug 17, 05:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 140.8h

    LOW
  • 08:09Signal

    Short-term vs. trend divergence

    Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +4.5pp vs. 24h -28.0pp.

    HIGH

Price movement

-28.0pp over the last 24h, now 21¢.

Biggest hourly move: -20.0pp at 08:00 (to 20¢).

Show 3 hourly moves
  • 08:00 · -20.0pp → 20¢
  • 07:00 · -15.5pp → 24¢
  • 05:00 · -3.5pp → 48¢
updated 08:09:54 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

3
updated 08:09:54 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventAstana: Amir Omarkhanov vs Beibit Zhukayev
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Amir Omarkhanov and Beibit Zhukayev in the Astana, originally scheduled for August 10, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Amir Omarkhanov' if Amir Omarkhanov advances against Beibit Zhukayev. This market will resolve to 'Beibit Zhukayev' if Beibit Zhukayev advances against Amir Omarkhanov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

atp

Reason

ATP-tour tennis tournament marker.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Astana: Amir Omarkhanov vs Beibit Zhukayev"?

As of Tue, 11 Aug 2026 08:09:54 GMT, YES is priced at 21% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -28.0pp in the last 24 hours, +4.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Aug 17, 2026 (2026-08-17T05:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$125.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $125.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $192.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket