Thick-Airfield
0xb7cc130847e24f24822cb2cda830e867cafc43c2
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$51.84
Total PnL
$1.11
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
20 shares @ 60.0¢·now 92.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$18.55
$6.55
- NO
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30?
14 shares @ 90.2¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 30, 2026$13.19
$0.46
- YES
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
577 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$5.48
$3.48
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
5 shares @ 65.5¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$3.04
$0.04
- YES
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
2 shares @ 56.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.74
$0.74
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
4 shares @ 49.3¢·now 42.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.73
$-0.27
- YES
Will Geraldine Coggins win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
74 shares @ 1.3¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$1.12
$0.12
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.04
$0.04
- NO
Will Dan Barker win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
1 shares @ 92.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$1.02
$0.02
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 96.1¢·now 96.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Geraldine Coggins win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$1.04Jun 26, 11:43 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$7.60Jun 26, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jun 26, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$1.04Jun 26, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$1.00Jun 25, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jun 25, 15:05 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$0.59Jun 25, 15:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25?$0.45Jun 25, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25?$5.02Jun 25, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dan Barker win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$1.00Jun 25, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$1.04Jun 25, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.00Jun 24, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1.00Jun 23, 16:05 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$7.24Jun 23, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by July 31, 2026?$2.94Jun 22, 10:40 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$1.43Jun 22, 10:40 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by June 26, 2026?$2.41Jun 22, 10:38 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by June 24, 2026?$1.22Jun 22, 10:38 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by June 22, 2026?$1.52Jun 22, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by June 24, 2026?$1.01Jun 22, 06:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $1.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 18:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 11:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.