Well-Informed-Channel
0xb7e60df7408850a820c92393ec82f6392e84d9e3
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
109
Open notional
$69.10
Total PnL
$-131.20
Realised
$0.48
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 109- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
8616 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$12.92
$-15.42
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
51 shares @ 8.6¢·now 22.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$11.32
$6.94
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
50 shares @ 6.1¢·now 21.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$10.77
$7.72
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$7.18
$6.18
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1170 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.92
$-2.09
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
20 shares @ 14.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.70
$-0.10
- YES
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
90 shares @ 3.4¢·now 2.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.38
$-0.71
- UP
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.33
$-0.17
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1525 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.29
$-12.33
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026?
47 shares @ 4.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.32
$-0.56
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.05Jul 28, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump approval Up or Down this week?$1.50Jul 27, 21:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's approval rating be at least 40.0 on July 31, 2026?$1.54Jul 26, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump approval Up or Down this week?$1.00Jul 26, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's approval rating be at least 40.0 on July 31, 2026?$0.87Jul 26, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu handshake last at least 15 seconds by July 31, 2026?$1.26Jul 26, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 10–15 seconds by July 31, 2026?$1.71Jul 26, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$1.04Jul 26, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.05Jul 26, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$1.20Jul 26, 03:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$0.12Jul 25, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?$1.10Jul 25, 12:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 22?$0.02Jul 22, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on July 23?$1.04Jul 22, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.00Jul 22, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.68Jul 22, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.32Jul 22, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.02Jul 22, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$2.80Jul 22, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 22?$1.07Jul 22, 06:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $2.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 19:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 08:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.