Dismal-Patty
0xb7e90681f15a36e24591baf24645f84726b6bdac
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
83
Open notional
$175.90
Total PnL
$-5.4K
Realised
$-519.69
Win rate
33%
52 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 83- NO
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?
93 shares @ 94.7¢·now 93.2¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$86.67
$-1.48
- NO
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
89 shares @ 44.1¢·now 41.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$36.39
$-2.74
- NO
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
203 shares @ 15.3¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$19.33
$-11.76
- YES
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
493 shares @ 66.9¢·now 3.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$17.77
$-312.62
- NO
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%?
647 shares @ 6.5¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$9.71
$-32.17
- NO
Will Argentina go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
90 shares @ 85.3¢·now 4.2¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$3.73
$-73.06
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
3 shares @ 62.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.96
$0.13
- YES
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?
5 shares @ 23.0¢·now 6.9¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.34
$-0.79
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on March 22?
4586 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-30.82
- WARRIORS
Lakers vs. Warriors
2000 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.0K
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?$3.44Jun 27, 07:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?$3.57Jun 27, 04:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Uruguay go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?$71.25Jun 27, 01:58 UTC
- REWARD$2.29Jun 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$2.00Jun 26, 08:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$6.80Jun 26, 08:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$1.01Jun 26, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 25?$49.98Jun 26, 08:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$27.73Jun 26, 05:35 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.51Jun 26, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$1.65Jun 26, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$25.91Jun 26, 00:33 UTC
- REWARD$18.56Jun 26, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?$0.06Jun 25, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?$2.34Jun 25, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?$1.60Jun 25, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Maddox Dagenais be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?$3.40Jun 25, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xavier Villeneuve be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?$3.60Jun 25, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xavier Villeneuve be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?$3.90Jun 25, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xavier Villeneuve be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?$6.40Jun 25, 23:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 52 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
52 closed markets, 33% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $13.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 15:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 27, 07:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 52 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.