Dismal-Patty
0xb7e90681f15a36e24591baf24645f84726b6bdac
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
82
Open notional
$0.08
Total PnL
$-6.4K
Realised
$-1.2K
Win rate
29%
55 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 82- YES
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?
5 shares @ 23.0¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.08
$-1.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on March 22?
4586 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-30.82
- WARRIORS
Lakers vs. Warriors
2000 shares @ 57.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.1K
- OVER
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies: O/U 136.5
1010 shares @ 53.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-538.67
- NO
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?
895 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-35.12
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?
876 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-43.22
- NO
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June?
600 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-24.50
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?
500 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-9.20
- YES
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?
500 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
493 shares @ 64.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-318.85
Recent activity
- REWARD$54.89Aug 7, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?$109.81Jul 30, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?$72.00Jul 30, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?$24.40Jul 30, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?$24.80Jul 30, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?$25.20Jul 30, 20:22 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.07Jul 30, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?$3.61Jul 30, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$21.94Jul 30, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?$2.32Jul 29, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?$4.90Jul 29, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?$1.16Jul 29, 23:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?$0.58Jul 29, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?$2.40Jul 29, 23:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?$5.44Jul 29, 23:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?$17.56Jul 29, 23:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$16.80Jul 29, 23:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$17.39Jul 29, 23:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?$19.37Jul 29, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?$5.60Jul 29, 22:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 55 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
55 closed markets, 29% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $20.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 20:09 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 20:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 55 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.