Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Probability
74¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+4.0pp
24h Vol
$8.2K
Liquidity
$18.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 74¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1566h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $18.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1566.1h
- 17:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1566h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+4.0pp over the last 24h, now 74¢.
Biggest hourly move: -9.5pp at 2d ago (to 71¢).
Show all 38 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · +6.0pp → 75¢
- 15:00 · +8.5pp → 77¢
- 14:00 · +4.5pp → 73¢
- 22:00 · -4.5pp → 68¢
- 21:00 · -8.0pp → 69¢
- 20:00 · -7.5pp → 70¢
- 18:00 · -7.5pp → 70¢
- 1d ago · -8.5pp → 71¢
- 1d ago · -8.5pp → 71¢
- 1d ago · -8.5pp → 71¢
- 1d ago · -8.5pp → 71¢
- 1d ago · -8.5pp → 71¢
- 1d ago · -8.5pp → 71¢
- 1d ago · -8.5pp → 71¢
- 1d ago · -8.0pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · -9.5pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · -9.5pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · -9.5pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 69¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 68¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 69¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 68¢
- 3d ago · -6.0pp → 68¢
- 3d ago · -5.0pp → 69¢
- 3d ago · -5.5pp → 69¢
- 3d ago · -6.0pp → 69¢
- 3d ago · -5.5pp → 69¢
- 3d ago · -6.5pp → 68¢
- 3d ago · -6.0pp → 69¢
- 3d ago · -6.0pp → 68¢
- 3d ago · -4.5pp → 68¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tamas Sulyok ceases to be the President of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and June 30 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sulyok's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Tamas Sulyok and the Hungarian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.