Grateful-Chance
0xb82eb169bff1ae5ae68aa067eb47ddaa5a685278
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-8.7K
Realised
$590.90
Win rate
75%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
143918 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-486.30
- NO
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
9033 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-241.59
- YES
Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin July 7-13?
5821 shares @ 12.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-704.38
- NO
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?
4167 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-241.17
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6?
4033 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-22.02
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
3333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19?
3166 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-87.72
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18?
2857 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10?
2618 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-9.37
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on July 24?$37.85Jul 24, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down on July 23?$36.58Jul 23, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 23?$1.23Jul 22, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 23?$66.73Jul 22, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down on July 22?$60.03Jul 22, 15:27 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down on July 22?$42.65Jul 22, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down on July 22?$34.15Jul 22, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on July 22?$2.28Jul 22, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.20 on July 22?$57.53Jul 21, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on July 21?$39.37Jul 21, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYLionel Messi: 1+ goals$29.67Jul 19, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYLamine Yamal: 1+ goals AND Lionel Messi: 1+ goals$33.90Jul 19, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?$1.07Jul 18, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?$57.98Jul 18, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron (MU) finish week of July 13 above $920?$20.04Jul 17, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYSilver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on July 16?$38.04Jul 16, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on July 16?$66.99Jul 16, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on July 15?$98.34Jul 15, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on July 15?$59.40Jul 14, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $1,900 on July 14?$121.27Jul 14, 15:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $50.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 07:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 02:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.