Warm-Causal
0xb87bb21c747b0117f4a45b86c949b9e6197a443c
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$262.57
Total PnL
$-154.36
Realised
$11.63
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
311 shares @ 34.5¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$88.55
$-18.66
- YES
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
2329 shares @ 3.1¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$47.74
$-25.76
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
877 shares @ 5.7¢·now 4.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$41.67
$-8.33
- YES
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
558 shares @ 3.6¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$24.82
$4.82
- YES
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
41 shares @ 48.9¢·now 59.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.51
$4.40
- YES
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
16 shares @ 61.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$9.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
57 shares @ 17.4¢·now 15.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.71
$-1.29
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
68 shares @ 11.3¢·now 11.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$7.71
$-0.03
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
29 shares @ 17.4¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$4.58
$-0.42
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
28 shares @ 17.6¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$4.53
$-0.47
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jun 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 5, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum flipped in 2026?$20.67Jun 4, 12:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$81.51Jun 4, 05:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 2, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$6.00Jun 1, 16:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 31, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 30, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 26, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$7.95May 25, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.12May 25, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.12May 25, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$20.59May 25, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$20.43May 25, 03:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $19.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 10, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 6, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".