Impartial-Harmonize
0xb89f5425341719d298dc2f5b9a92374f5fde1c44
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
106
Open notional
$15.7K
Total PnL
$987.46
Realised
$3.1K
Win rate
55%
73 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 106- NO
Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?
1364 shares @ 95.2¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.4K
$56.06
- YES
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?
1314 shares @ 95.7¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.3K
$44.45
- NO
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?
1473 shares @ 83.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.3K
$74.21
- YES
Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?
1885 shares @ 39.4¢·now 52.3¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$986.97
$243.31
- YES
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
802 shares @ 72.1¢·now 93.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$751.61
$172.88
- YES
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?
760 shares @ 33.9¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$748.97
$490.98
- YES
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
1142 shares @ 36.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$611.13
$199.24
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
683 shares @ 66.2¢·now 83.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$569.53
$117.46
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
542 shares @ 41.3¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$532.79
$308.65
- YES
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22?
1220 shares @ 4.4¢·now 42.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$518.58
$465.17
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?$15.00Jul 29, 03:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?$14.83Jul 29, 03:58 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.73Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$19.37Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.61Jul 28, 23:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?$1.56Jul 28, 13:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?$13.64Jul 28, 10:07 UTC
- MERGEWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?$70.36Jul 28, 09:52 UTC
- MERGEWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?$1.1KJul 28, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?$756.61Jul 28, 09:52 UTC
- MERGEWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?$8.91Jul 28, 09:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?$1.22Jul 28, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?$127.20Jul 28, 04:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1510 by December 31?$269.35Jul 28, 02:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?$0.45Jul 28, 02:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?$1.55Jul 28, 02:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?$288.06Jul 28, 02:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$98.27Jul 28, 01:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 73 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
73 closed markets, 55% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $129.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 17:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 03:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 73 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.