Decent-Beginner
0xb8a4c55c417808bb542af7edd05feeba87d90de2
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
118
Open notional
$318.64
Total PnL
$-375.22
Realised
$-3.18
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 118- YES
Will Nasim Nuñez lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?
55 shares @ 11.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Sep 28, 2026$40.64
$34.64
- YES
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?
281 shares @ 4.6¢·now 7.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$20.67
$7.67
- YES
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?
194 shares @ 3.1¢·now 9.8¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$19.06
$13.06
- YES
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
466 shares @ 3.4¢·now 3.4¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$15.61
$-0.39
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
59 shares @ 25.6¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.76
$-1.24
- YES
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title
15 shares @ 20.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$12.90
$9.90
- YES
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series?
185 shares @ 2.7¢·now 5.7¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$10.46
$5.46
- YES
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?
177 shares @ 2.8¢·now 5.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$9.46
$4.46
- YES
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title?
18 shares @ 16.3¢·now 50.1¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$9.23
$6.23
- YES
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?
132 shares @ 5.3¢·now 6.9¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$9.05
$2.05
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$65.36Jul 20, 01:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $72.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 14, 08:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.