Fortunate-Trick
0xb8fe45459cc5b785fe5c9aaa26780db3980491cf
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
153
Open notional
$97.46
Total PnL
$-737.87
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 153- NO
Will voter turnout be less than 47% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
32 shares @ 91.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$29.34
$0.34
- NO
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
24 shares @ 85.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$20.59
$0.59
- NO
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
26 shares @ 77.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$20.26
$0.26
- NO
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
25 shares @ 59.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$16.40
$1.40
- NO
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
14 shares @ 74.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$10.00
$0.00
- YES
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
34 shares @ 2.9¢·now 2.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$0.87
$-0.13
- YES
Will China win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
5309 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-24.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 1?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 1?
139 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
115 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be less than 47% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$14.05Jul 23, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be less than 47% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$15.05Jul 23, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$1.00Jul 23, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$10.00Jul 23, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$20.00Jul 23, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$20.00Jul 23, 07:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?$4.87Jul 23, 07:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$33.45Jul 23, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$30.73Jul 23, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?$5.12Jul 23, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$5.12Jul 23, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 23?$5.12Jul 23, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 23?$5.17Jul 23, 07:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$15.00Jul 20, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$66.15Jul 20, 01:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$30.63Jul 16, 11:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $9.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 14, 07:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 07:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.