Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Probability
19¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$19.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3532h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $19.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3531.9h
- 20:05SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 3532h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 19¢.
Biggest hourly move: -7.5pp at 2d ago (to 19¢).
Show all 6 hour-by-hour ticks
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · -6.0pp → 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryRussian governmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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