Silver-Stool
0xb92449f0f035e2e9de00f1f9a8f19e0158af0803
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$731.89
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-237.91
Win rate
45%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
200 shares @ 96.7¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$193.30
$-0.10
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
200 shares @ 95.8¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$185.90
$-5.70
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
200 shares @ 76.5¢·now 75.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$151.60
$-1.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?
125 shares @ 72.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$73.75
$-16.25
- YES
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
125 shares @ 55.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$71.24
$2.49
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
200 shares @ 24.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$43.00
$-5.00
- YES
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
200 shares @ 3.7¢·now 3.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$6.70
$-0.70
- YES
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
200 shares @ 3.4¢·now 3.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.40
$-0.40
- TEAM VITALITY
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner
500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 6?
400 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$36.88Jul 29, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$41.75Jul 29, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$4.65Jul 29, 02:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?$38.75Jul 29, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$16.25Jul 29, 02:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$68.75Jul 29, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?$10.63Jul 29, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?$9.38Jul 29, 01:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$1.70Jul 29, 00:58 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$9.47Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$0.74Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rand Paul announce a presidential run before 2027?$55.80Jul 29, 00:08 UTC
- REWARD$188.75Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China blockade Taiwan in 2026?$57.65Jul 28, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$1.20Jul 28, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?$34.50Jul 28, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$19.52Jul 28, 23:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$4.51Jul 28, 23:24 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$51.60Jul 28, 23:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
31 closed markets, 45% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $37.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 17:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.