Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Probability
17¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$35.87
Liquidity
$18.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4424.5h
- 03:31SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4424h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 16¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Oct 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).