Agile-Understanding
0xb9fd687edbc9ae7a58bf69d0a6fff2aba75e5c4f
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
36
Open notional
$201.93
Total PnL
$-29.75
Realised
$-5.26
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
30 shares @ 80.7¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$24.75
$0.55
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
30 shares @ 60.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.35
$1.35
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
20 shares @ 85.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$15.68
$-1.32
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 25?
20 shares @ 14.5¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$10.50
$7.60
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
10 shares @ 20.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$9.99
$7.93
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
20 shares @ 33.7¢·now 42.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$8.42
$1.69
- MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)
10 shares @ 78.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$7.95
$0.15
- NO
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?
10 shares @ 64.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$7.25
$0.85
- BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)
10 shares @ 74.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$7.25
$-0.15
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
40 shares @ 28.6¢·now 17.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.08
$-4.36
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 24?$10.00Jul 24, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYCincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5$5.52Jul 24, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYAthletics vs. Minnesota Twins$5.82Jul 24, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)$6.22Jul 24, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYToronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5$4.82Jul 24, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYLos Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets$5.62Jul 24, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYGold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 24?$4.10Jul 24, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)$7.50Jul 24, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5$7.20Jul 24, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5$5.22Jul 24, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals$5.52Jul 24, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?$3.89Jul 24, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 26?$2.18Jul 24, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 26?$0.02Jul 24, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 25?$1.80Jul 24, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 25?$1.48Jul 24, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?$2.50Jul 24, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$3.41Jul 24, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 20 2026?$2.15Jul 24, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)$7.89Jul 24, 06:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $4.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 05:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 16:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.