Gregarious-Prescription
0xba3da8a2141274159115b4e88dc50c54a14fc2c8
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$2.4K
Total PnL
$229.90
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
1120 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.1K
$78.40
- YES
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
2400 shares @ 34.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$972.00
$156.00
- NO
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
300 shares @ 89.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$262.50
$-4.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYRussia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?$816.00Jul 22, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?$267.00Jul 13, 08:52 UTC
- YIELD$0.10May 16, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.8KMay 15, 11:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.20May 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.20May 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.20May 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.20May 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.20May 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.20May 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.20May 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.20May 8, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.20May 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.20May 6, 00:13 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.24May 5, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.24May 5, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$579.60May 4, 12:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.17May 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.19May 3, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.17May 2, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
15 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 15
- Avg trade size
- $522.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 27, 12:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 02:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.