0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874
0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.9K
Total PnL
$-6.3K
Realised
$-414.24
Win rate
47%
68 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?
201 shares @ 96.2¢·now 97.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$197.08
$3.23
- NO
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on July 28?
186 shares @ 94.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$186.12
$9.96
- NO
Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 25 Gwei before 2027?
174 shares @ 86.6¢·now 94.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$165.03
$14.09
- NO
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?
136 shares @ 94.4¢·now 96.7¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$131.26
$3.04
- NO
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027?
118 shares @ 95.4¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$113.53
$0.69
- NO
Will Madonna's monthly listeners figure hit 60m by August 31?
106 shares @ 94.2¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$103.30
$2.93
- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 Week of July 27 2026?
80 shares @ 77.0¢·now 96.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$77.25
$15.55
- NO
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on July 28?
75 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$74.93
$20.96
- NO
Will Trump's approval rating hit 46% in 2026?
82 shares @ 89.9¢·now 89.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$72.69
$-0.64
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 28?
72 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$71.86
$22.22
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027?$3.45Jul 28, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek IPO by June 30, 2027?$6.14Jul 28, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek IPO by June 30, 2027?$3.05Jul 28, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027?$1.85Jul 28, 20:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $310 Week of July 27 2026?$3.59Jul 28, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lam Research (LRCX) Q4 total revenue be above $6.8B?$2.50Jul 28, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lam Research (LRCX) Q4 total revenue be above $7B?$1.59Jul 28, 18:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$0.39Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 28?$249.76Jul 28, 18:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 28?$0.24Jul 28, 18:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 18:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $132 Week of July 27 2026?$20.79Jul 28, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $134 Week of July 27 2026?$0.38Jul 28, 18:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?$0.16Jul 28, 18:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 18:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?$33.01Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?$24.32Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?$16.79Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?$22.79Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $316 Week of July 27 2026?$2.73Jul 28, 17:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
47% win rate over 68 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
68 closed markets, 47% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $13.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 15:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 21:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 68 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.