Careless-Stove
0xbb34d9b18a9a17b0d1deb0d2bf414e1e8879a600
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$79.34
Total PnL
$-919.66
Realised
$-0.30
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?
111 shares @ 52.6¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$79.34
$20.99
- YES
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
2548 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 7PM ET
500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2025$0.00
$-0.50
- UP
Solana Up or Down - August 2, 10AM ET
500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2025$0.00
$-0.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 3AM ET
499 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2025$0.00
$-0.50
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3AM ET
477 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2025$0.00
$-0.48
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 8PM ET
333 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2025$0.00
$-3.33
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 1PM ET
327 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2025$0.00
$-3.27
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 10AM ET
325 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2025$0.00
$-3.25
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 3AM ET
278 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2025$0.00
$-2.78
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND France vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Spain: Team to Advance$49.99Jul 12, 19:54 UTC
- REDEEMNorway vs. England: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Norway vs. England: Team to Advance AND Erling Haaland: 1+ shots$43.04Jul 12, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Norway vs. England: Team to Advance AND Erling Haaland: 1+ shots$29.99Jul 11, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$1.04Jul 11, 12:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?$5.88Jul 1, 07:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?$30.15Jun 30, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?$0.98Jun 25, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?$1.01Jun 25, 20:14 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: March$2.38Jun 25, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?$58.35Apr 27, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?$20.00Apr 17, 12:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?$1.54Apr 10, 18:45 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$1.18Apr 5, 08:52 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$17.50Apr 5, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMHouthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?$1.64Apr 4, 08:31 UTC
- REDEEMUS/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?$2.13Apr 3, 19:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?$3.45Apr 1, 17:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?$4.23Apr 1, 17:53 UTC
- REDEEM Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?$8.33Apr 1, 17:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?$11.24Apr 1, 17:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $8.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 5, 13:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 19:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.