Realistic-Raft
0xbb7d46da131bd01fcc82b1ba1293c388430486f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
31
Open notional
$7.4K
Total PnL
$-783.60
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
3448 shares @ 87.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$2.9K
$-51.72
- YES
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship?
29222 shares @ 3.4¢·now 3.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$1.0K
$8.18
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
1592 shares @ 62.8¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$994.97
$-5.02
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
1316 shares @ 76.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$993.42
$-6.58
- YES
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
823 shares @ 32.1¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$440.75
$176.75
- YES
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
418 shares @ 75.6¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$353.36
$37.36
- YES
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
274 shares @ 73.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$179.45
$-20.55
- YES
Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2026 AFC North?
245 shares @ 40.8¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jan 4, 2027$116.49
$16.49
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
123 shares @ 81.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$100.60
$0.60
- NO
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
139 shares @ 36.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$58.33
$8.33
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$202.16Jun 4, 13:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 4, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?$134.79Jun 3, 20:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 3, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Belgium win on 2026-06-02?$37.31Jun 2, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?$51.04Jun 2, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Spurs$101.08Jun 2, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium win on 2026-06-02?$25.25Jun 2, 16:41 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 2, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMRoland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda$125.16Jun 1, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$507.25Jun 1, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi$50.73Jun 1, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda$100.60Jun 1, 12:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$217.64Jun 1, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$1000.00Jun 1, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1000.00Jun 1, 12:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$3.0KJun 1, 12:19 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$6.6KJun 1, 12:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 1, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$50.34May 31, 03:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $355.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 27, 23:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 4, 13:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".