Mealy-Disparity
0xbb9655f5883280f926934474b21437d3f7339545
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-270.33
Realised
$-6.23
Win rate
11%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
888 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-17.76
- YES
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
666 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-19.98
- YES
Megaquake by July 31?
504 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.49
- YES
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
128 shares @ 29.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.00
$-38.20
- YES
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?
107 shares @ 12.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-13.58
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
63 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-39.57
- YES
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
50 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-26.50
- YES
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?
50 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-19.50
- YES
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?
50 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-24.50
- YES
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?
38 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.52
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?$42.76Aug 10, 14:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?$9.27Aug 10, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?$0.90Aug 10, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?$16.69Aug 10, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?$14.84Aug 10, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?$3.60Aug 10, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?$7.57Aug 10, 12:56 UTC
- REWARD$4.60Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYMegaquake by July 31?$2.00Jul 29, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYMegaquake by July 31?$0.49Jul 29, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYMegaquake by July 31?$5.25Jul 28, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$39.54Jul 28, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?$1.59Jul 19, 15:27 UTC
- REWARD$1.87Jul 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$0.83Jul 17, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$3.63Jul 17, 14:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$76.28Jul 17, 08:40 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.06Jul 17, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$10.77Jul 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$3.00Jul 16, 20:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $17.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 17:27 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 14:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.