Modest-Geography
0xbc17c81da71b3d85143a3c903ccd0d24c1c5c01c
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$84.12
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$44.94
Win rate
86%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
78 shares @ 24.8¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$26.14
$6.81
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
100 shares @ 20.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$13.50
$-6.50
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100 shares @ 16.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$13.50
$-2.50
- YES
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
150 shares @ 15.7¢·now 8.6¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$12.96
$-10.64
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
75 shares @ 16.6¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.14
$-2.38
- YES
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
206 shares @ 1.5¢·now 2.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$4.74
$1.65
- YES
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
900 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.15
$-14.44
- YES
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
1308 shares @ 57.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-755.63
- YES
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?
381 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-13.42
- YES
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
350 shares @ 61.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-216.50
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $1.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 14:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.