Troubled-Certificate
0xbc7784909be34791c5c298833d66c3a6f15e66ff
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$246.50
Total PnL
$-622.34
Realised
$-7.86
Win rate
11%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?
16 shares @ 25.6¢·now 67.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.72
$6.66
- YES
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?
10 shares @ 46.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$9.15
$4.65
- YES
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
17 shares @ 39.1¢·now 52.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.10
$2.35
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
54 shares @ 10.5¢·now 16.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.00
$3.34
- NO
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?
22 shares @ 22.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$7.57
$2.67
- YES
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?
8 shares @ 69.8¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$7.50
$2.17
- NO
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10 shares @ 60.5¢·now 67.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$6.70
$0.65
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
9 shares @ 69.4¢·now 73.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$6.34
$0.35
- NO
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
10 shares @ 61.0¢·now 63.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.30
$0.20
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
8 shares @ 75.5¢·now 79.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.27
$0.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$1.02Jun 26, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$2.71Jun 26, 16:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$4.70Jun 26, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$2.45Jun 26, 15:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?$1.25Jun 26, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31$2.25Jun 26, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?$1.20Jun 26, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$0.05Jun 26, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$0.38Jun 26, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$0.31Jun 26, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$0.14Jun 26, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$0.82Jun 26, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$1.16Jun 26, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$1.30Jun 26, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$1.20Jun 26, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$1.00Jun 26, 05:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$0.85Jun 26, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?$1.40Jun 26, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?$1.54Jun 26, 00:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 10:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 16:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.