Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Probability
71¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+9.5pp
24h Vol
$171.34
Liquidity
$20.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+11.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 10pp over 24h
Now 71¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 66¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 71¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 71¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 71¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 69¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 71¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 69¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 69¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 68¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 71¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 71¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 71¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 70¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 71¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 71¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Associated PressNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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