Rough-Merchandise
0xbc78f05b3860a18dcc3ce89e77466f193fb85551
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$6.49
Total PnL
$-2.69
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?
3 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$2.52
$0.01
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$1.60
$0.00
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
1 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$1.24
$0.01
- YES
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?
1 shares @ 92.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.13
$0.08
- YES
Will Siumut win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?
11 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2025$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025?
2 shares @ 83.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$1.23Apr 27, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$1.60Apr 27, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?$2.50Apr 27, 05:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $60 in January?$2.27Apr 27, 05:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?$3.17Apr 27, 05:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $6,000 in January?$3.70Apr 27, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $60 in January?$2.26Jan 13, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?$3.16Jan 13, 02:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $6,000 in January?$3.69Jan 13, 02:29 UTC
- REDEEMLighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?$1.06Jan 13, 02:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?$1.11Jan 13, 02:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.36Jan 13, 02:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?$1.05Dec 16, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYLighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?$1.04Dec 16, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.22Dec 16, 04:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS by Bad Bunny be the top Spotify album for 2025?$1.04Dec 16, 04:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings?$1.09Dec 16, 04:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?$1.17Dec 16, 04:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?$1.18Dec 16, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings?$1.00Nov 18, 02:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $135.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 23, 23:48 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 05:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".