Icy-Carpet
0xbc824d55ab1fde36d287eea87073de6c26db6421
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
62
Open notional
$27.37
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-157.15
Win rate
25%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- NO
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?
20 shares @ 46.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$18.30
$9.10
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
100 shares @ 15.0¢·now 3.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.70
$-11.30
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
100 shares @ 2.9¢·now 3.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.65
$0.75
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
64 shares @ 2.5¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.62
$0.03
- YES
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?
9 shares @ 0.7¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$0.10
$0.04
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-9.96
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
5150 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-17.99
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?
2300 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
1660 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-13.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$1.07Aug 18, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$5.35Aug 18, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$5.14Aug 18, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYHarry Kane: 1+ goals AND Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals AND Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals$10.00Jul 18, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYEnzo Fernández: 1+ goals AND Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals$1.99Jul 17, 00:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYJulián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target AND Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target AND Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target AND Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target$9.99Jul 15, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYKylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5$10.00Jul 14, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?$10.00Jul 1, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Spurs$7.50Jun 14, 03:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYKorea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5$5.00Jun 12, 03:53 UTC
- REDEEMSpurs vs. Knicks$80.00Jun 11, 03:54 UTC
- TRADESELLSpurs vs. Knicks$10.00Jun 11, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Knicks$4.00Jun 11, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Knicks$6.00Jun 11, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Knicks$7.50Jun 9, 02:52 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Knicks (-5.5)$40.00Jun 9, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Knicks$16.83Jun 9, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Knicks (-5.5)$21.10Jun 6, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Spurs (-4.5)$6.90Jun 4, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$3.70Jun 4, 00:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
32 closed markets, 25% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $7.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 8, 01:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 08:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.