Mellow-Lighting
0xbcb28c7e99eb5853f6747d03f1ef75dcacd1c262
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$18.53
Total PnL
$-94.89
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
20 shares @ 97.0¢·now 92.7¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$18.53
$-0.87
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 7?
100 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-0.25
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?
70 shares @ 50.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-35.31
- DOWN
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on July 9?
50 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
- NO
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on July 8?
50 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.30
- NO
Will Vance say "Today" during Milwaukee remarks?
50 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- NO
Will PepsiCo say "Margin" during earnings call?
30 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.24
- NO
US strike on Syria by December 31?
30 shares @ 74.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 14, 2025$0.00
$-22.20
- NO
Will PriceSmart say "Membership" during earnings call?
30 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.42
- DOWN
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on July 9?
20 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.18
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Adele perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$0.52Jul 10, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by July 31?$0.23Jul 10, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Odyssey" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$0.23Jul 10, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by July 31?$0.25Jul 10, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by July 31?$0.19Jul 10, 05:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $77.5B by July 31?$0.02Jul 10, 05:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by July 31?$0.01Jul 10, 05:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 9?$50.00Jul 10, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$0.22Jul 10, 04:53 UTC
- REWARD$9.25Jul 10, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by July 31?$0.01Jul 9, 22:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by July 31?$19.12Jul 9, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by July 31?$0.34Jul 9, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "History" during the France vs Morocco FIFA World Cup Match?$0.40Jul 9, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on July 9?$0.12Jul 9, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on July 9?$0.06Jul 9, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYSilver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on July 9?$0.20Jul 9, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Adele perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$0.65Jul 9, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by July 31?$0.28Jul 9, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by July 31?$0.22Jul 9, 16:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $7.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 19:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 05:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.