Unsightly-Dialogue
0xbcc276705fb6d5a22e4aef994ede92f109918c9a
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
133
Open notional
$1.4K
Total PnL
$-230.10
Realised
$-179.39
Win rate
53%
126 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 133- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
221 shares @ 63.1¢·now 77.3¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$171.13
$31.39
- NO
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?
143 shares @ 81.2¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$117.65
$1.84
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
98 shares @ 56.9¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$62.40
$6.52
- NO
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?
57 shares @ 88.7¢·now 96.3¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$54.88
$4.35
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
222 shares @ 35.9¢·now 22.7¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$50.36
$-29.24
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
80 shares @ 59.0¢·now 55.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$44.01
$-3.16
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
98 shares @ 44.8¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$35.88
$-8.16
- NO
Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
36 shares @ 94.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.75
$1.91
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
45 shares @ 64.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$28.62
$0.00
- NO
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
40 shares @ 70.1¢·now 69.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.69
$-0.46
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$7.90Jul 28, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$3.61Jul 28, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$6.98Jul 28, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?$1.08Jul 28, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$3.04Jul 28, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$9.75Jul 28, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?$24.30Jul 28, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?$8.10Jul 28, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?$1.20Jul 28, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?$23.70Jul 28, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$10.80Jul 28, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$9.90Jul 28, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$10.80Jul 28, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?$2.30Jul 28, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$4.95Jul 28, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$14.52Jul 28, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$12.32Jul 28, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$12.38Jul 28, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?$8.70Jul 28, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$0.94Jul 28, 22:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 126 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
126 closed markets, 53% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $8.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 21:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 126 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.