Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Probability
78¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$1.2K
Liquidity
$25.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.6h
- 15:22SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 78¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 78¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 78¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 76¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 70¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 70¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 71¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 70¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 73¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 71¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 75¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 79¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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