Long-Term-Overhead
0xbd14da5083afdef8518339c2c1b7b19a491576b4
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
136
Open notional
$4.9K
Total PnL
$-3.9K
Realised
$-1.4K
Win rate
7%
60 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 136- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
766 shares @ 74.7¢·now 73.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$559.56
$-12.64
- NO
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
503 shares @ 68.0¢·now 58.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$291.74
$-50.30
- YES
Will RealReal (REAL) beat quarterly earnings?
305 shares @ 82.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$207.40
$-42.70
- YES
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?
564 shares @ 42.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$188.94
$-47.94
- NO
Will the median home value in NYC be between $609,000 and $636,000 on September 30?
276 shares @ 76.5¢·now 66.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$183.95
$-27.19
- YES
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?
347 shares @ 69.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$182.36
$-57.31
- NO
Will BN win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?
724 shares @ 44.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$177.32
$-141.13
- YES
Will PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?
695 shares @ 34.0¢·now 25.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$173.72
$-62.54
- YES
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026?
724 shares @ 31.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$152.04
$-72.40
- NO
Will Tukaka George Tamarua Ama win the Ngatangiia constituency in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
1064 shares @ 46.0¢·now 13.7¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$145.24
$-344.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?$9.31Jul 29, 11:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$50.33Jul 29, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CZ post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$51.66Jul 29, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CZ post 0-19 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$4.27Jul 29, 11:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?$45.00Jul 29, 10:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?$110.27Jul 29, 10:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?$7.69Jul 29, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matthew Rhys – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series?$9.38Jul 29, 10:43 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?$138.95Jul 29, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?$4.17Jul 29, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?$136.86Jul 29, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 3.4% in July?$271.19Jul 29, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.4% in July?$280.06Jul 29, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$57.03Jul 29, 10:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?$3.47Jul 29, 10:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?$3.47Jul 29, 10:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?$2.25Jul 29, 09:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?$77.00Jul 29, 09:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill PayPal be acquired before 2027?$21.66Jul 29, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PayPal be acquired before 2027?$22.41Jul 29, 09:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 60 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
60 closed markets, 7% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $75.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 07:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 11:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 60 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.