Needy-Pearl
0xbd1e871b2b24f1ed23424461c359b08e748125a7
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$204.42
Total PnL
$-118.05
Realised
$-4.52
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will William Foxen win the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year?
40 shares @ 65.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$24.40
$-1.60
- NO
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $142 Week of August 3 2026?
40 shares @ 64.0¢·now 58.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$23.20
$-2.40
- YES
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
40 shares @ 64.9¢·now 50.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$20.34
$-5.62
- NO
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?
34 shares @ 60.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$17.93
$-2.18
- YES
Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?
40 shares @ 62.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$17.80
$-7.00
- YES
Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?
40 shares @ 67.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$14.40
$-12.40
- NO
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?
40 shares @ 61.7¢·now 34.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$13.76
$-10.90
- YES
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
30 shares @ 60.1¢·now 32.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$9.77
$-8.27
- YES
Will Ariana Grande's monthly listeners figure hit 105m by August 31?
20 shares @ 62.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.50
$-2.90
- NO
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?
20 shares @ 60.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.20
$-2.80
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Bradley Barcola join Liverpool?$13.94Aug 4, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bradley Barcola join Liverpool?$7.46Aug 4, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bradley Barcola join Liverpool?$7.48Aug 4, 13:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?$25.60Aug 4, 13:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of August 3 2026?$18.32Aug 4, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of August 3 2026?$6.20Aug 4, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of August 3 2026?$12.40Aug 4, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nongshim RedForce be a 2027 VCT Pacific partner team?$6.40Aug 4, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill William Foxen win the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year?$13.00Aug 4, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill William Foxen win the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year?$13.00Aug 4, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k?$12.37Aug 4, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k?$13.00Aug 4, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?$13.40Aug 4, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?$13.60Aug 4, 11:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in August?$5.05Aug 4, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in August?$6.40Aug 4, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?$6.20Aug 4, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?$6.20Aug 4, 11:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?$12.16Aug 4, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?$12.60Aug 4, 11:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $10.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 4, 09:28 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 13:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.