Wicked-War-Plot
0xbd65566cbe7ffdfc5f97b574f7b6f70daf91927f
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
104
Open notional
$11.08
Total PnL
$-2.4K
Realised
$88.32
Win rate
82%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 104- YES
Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?
159 shares @ 5.4¢·now 7.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$11.08
$2.53
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
10500 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-245.51
- YES
Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?
2174 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-105.15
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
2056 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-29.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
1319 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
1300 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-65.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
1010 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-33.03
- YES
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?
1000 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
513 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-14.60
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET
420 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-23.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?$0.28Jul 10, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$5.11Jul 10, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$1.82Jul 10, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$1.27Jul 10, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$0.05Jul 10, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$6.36Jul 10, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$5.34Jul 10, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$10.03Jul 10, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$4.97Jul 10, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$10.56Jul 10, 01:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$14.00Jul 10, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$10.32Jul 10, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$4.37Jul 10, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$4.97Jul 10, 01:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$17.81Jul 10, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$10.17Jul 10, 01:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$10.86Jul 10, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$9.85Jul 10, 01:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$0.00Jul 10, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$9.54Jul 10, 01:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
82% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $7.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 01:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 07:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.