Disloyal-Hacksaw-Pea
0xbdf7751a8a69f0f9fe913319b0cd1b4c35ac1fe2
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
107
Open notional
$52.01
Total PnL
$-932.45
Realised
$-13.66
Win rate
0%
98 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 107- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 15?
13 shares @ 77.6¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$12.85
$2.85
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 16?
14 shares @ 72.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$9.79
$-0.21
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 15?
13 shares @ 75.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$8.87
$-1.13
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
5 shares @ 92.6¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.19
$0.19
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 90.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.14
$0.14
- NO
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
5 shares @ 92.3¢·now 94.3¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$5.11
$0.11
- NO
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.07
$0.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21?
113 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 21?
88 shares @ 11.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 21?
81 shares @ 12.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 16?$10.14Aug 15, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 15?$10.12Aug 14, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 14?$10.12Aug 14, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 15?$10.11Aug 14, 07:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 13?$13.44Aug 13, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on August 13?$13.60Aug 13, 16:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 13?$13.89Aug 13, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 13?$10.13Aug 13, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 13?$10.13Aug 13, 07:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 12?$13.33Aug 13, 02:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 12?$13.01Aug 12, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 12?$10.19Aug 12, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 13?$10.13Aug 11, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 12?$10.12Aug 11, 23:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 12?$10.11Aug 11, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 12?$10.12Aug 11, 22:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 11?$15.38Aug 11, 16:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 11?$14.20Aug 11, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on August 13?$10.13Aug 11, 16:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 11?$13.51Aug 11, 16:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 98 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
98 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $10.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 6, 21:43 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 05:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 98 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.