Wallet profile

Luminous-Morphology

0xbed3ae1f0128e01caf3b9cffb8a0c2da3b562811

activity 50/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

50/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

22

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-47.3K

Realised

$-3.6K

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 22

Recent activity

  • REFERRAL_REWARD$4.67Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$23.73Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$18.26Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$1.12Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$31.32Jun 23, 00:12 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$1.10Jun 23, 00:12 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$1.30Jun 23, 00:11 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$10.91Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$320.67Jun 16, 00:35 UTC
  • TRADEBUYSpain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5$1.2KJun 15, 11:13 UTC
  • TRADESELLSpain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5$1.2KJun 15, 11:12 UTC
  • TRADEBUYSpain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5$1.2KJun 15, 04:55 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$676.25Jun 15, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$228.64Jun 14, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$264.21Jun 13, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$73.26Jun 12, 00:35 UTC
  • YIELD$0.25Jun 12, 00:13 UTC
  • TRADESELLWill Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$12.9KJun 11, 04:10 UTC
  • YIELD$1.22Jun 11, 00:16 UTC
  • YIELD$1.27Jun 10, 00:12 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100
read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal
review

30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.

Resolved-only track record
block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity66 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence3 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry36 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk65 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
30
Avg trade size
$1.4K
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jun 5, 04:17 UTC
Last active
Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample
1 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 18:25:01 UTC·src:Polymarket Data