Zesty-Chandelier
0xbf1e1e3e1b38e716d50094eb08a849dcf9b00a48
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
72
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$-12.64
Win rate
42%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 72- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
3272 shares @ 34.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.1K
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
84 shares @ 55.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-46.52
- NO
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February?
68 shares @ 35.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-24.15
- NO
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k?
68 shares @ 27.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-18.45
- YES
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in January?
60 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
- YES
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?
47 shares @ 39.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-18.61
- NO
Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings?
45 shares @ 35.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-15.97
- NO
Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
45 shares @ 26.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-12.02
- YES
Will the Democratic Party for the People win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
36 shares @ 44.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-15.95
- NO
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?
35 shares @ 35.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-12.43
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?$0.00Mar 17, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$20.30Mar 12, 16:17 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$0.18Mar 12, 16:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs?$0.20Mar 12, 16:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's public ticker be $X?$0.25Mar 12, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLOdds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?$0.36Mar 12, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?$0.39Mar 12, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by 9% or more?$0.32Mar 12, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBill Clinton divorce by June 30?$0.47Mar 12, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.53Mar 12, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?$0.53Mar 12, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?$0.46Mar 12, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?$0.62Mar 12, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?$0.61Mar 12, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?$0.90Mar 12, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?$0.95Mar 12, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?$0.90Mar 12, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?$0.96Mar 12, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy$1.05Mar 12, 16:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$1.18Mar 12, 16:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $24.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 12, 16:02 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 17, 20:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.