0xbf59e01d92a6268a25d9fac85dd5cecb8c77f2b8
0xbf59e01d92a6268a25d9fac85dd5cecb8c77f2b8
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$6.84
Total PnL
$-5.0K
Realised
$-1.9K
Win rate
0%
97 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
76 shares @ 16.1¢·now 8.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.84
$-5.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET
52 shares @ 39.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-20.45
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET
51 shares @ 52.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-27.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET
45 shares @ 63.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-28.46
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
43 shares @ 41.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-18.05
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET
40 shares @ 50.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-19.85
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
38 shares @ 72.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-27.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
36 shares @ 82.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-30.05
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
36 shares @ 76.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-27.55
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
36 shares @ 75.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-27.24
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$4.54Jul 31, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$4.35Jul 31, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$4.06Jul 31, 07:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$0.00Jul 31, 07:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$0.00Jul 31, 07:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$0.00Jul 31, 07:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$0.00Jul 31, 07:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$0.00Jul 31, 07:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$0.00Jul 31, 07:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$20.87Jul 31, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET$3.18Jul 31, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$4.38Jul 31, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$4.06Jul 31, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$3.87Jul 31, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$3.64Jul 31, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$0.00Jul 31, 06:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$10.63Jul 31, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$4.39Jul 31, 06:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$0.00Jul 31, 06:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$9.94Jul 31, 06:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 97 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
97 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $4.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 05:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 07:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 97 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.