Tough-Forecast
0xbfbf62fdc0dc373b4e6b76683936f81c60ea110f
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
45
Open notional
$20.14
Total PnL
$-48.64
Realised
$-0.33
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- YES
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
20 shares @ 37.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$20.14
$12.69
- NO
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 2, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 6?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26 °C or below on December 6?
112 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on December 6?
73 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 6?
71 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 6?
69 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 8?
53 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 8?
53 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$3.36Feb 18, 20:38 UTC
- TRADESELLChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$0.78Feb 18, 20:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$2.58Feb 18, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$4.09Feb 18, 20:37 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?$4.09Jan 20, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?$6.87Jan 10, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$6.88Jan 10, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$1.42Jan 8, 12:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?$0.80Jan 8, 12:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.62Jan 8, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$2.83Jan 8, 12:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.33Jan 8, 12:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.50Jan 8, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$3.05Jan 5, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$1.00Jan 5, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?$1.00Jan 4, 23:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$2.56Jan 2, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$1.00Jan 2, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$1.00Jan 2, 16:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?$0.00Jan 2, 16:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $1.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 5, 23:53 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 18, 20:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".