Wallet digest

Activity score

53/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$1.1K

Total PnL

$-1.6K

Realised

$-46.66

Win rate

33%

3 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

NO
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
500 shares @ 85.6¢·now 89.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026
$447.49
$19.50
NO
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
500 shares @ 81.0¢·now 76.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026
$380.75
$-24.25
NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
300 shares @ 70.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$239.79
$29.84
NO
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026
$40.00
$8.00
NO
Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?
2075 shares @ 46.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 6, 2024
$0.00
$-956.39
YES
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?
784 shares @ 29.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 6, 2024
$0.00
$-229.31
YES
Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?
500 shares @ 20.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 6, 2024
$0.00
$-104.25
YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
500 shares @ 50.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024
$0.00
$-253.00
YES
Will Inter Miami beat Palmeiras?
400 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025
$0.00
$-72.00

Recent activity

YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 25, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 10, 00:12 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

21/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

33% win rate over 3 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record

review

3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity29 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence10 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry33 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk50 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 0
Avg trade size: $0.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 10, 00:16 UTC
Last active: Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
Win rate sample: 3 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 07:16:19 UTC·src:Polymarket Data